The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the “Atoms for Peace” program. They have one operational nuclear reactor and plans for 20 more in the future.
Iran has at least a dozen nuclear-enrichment facilities, several of them buried under mountains as a defense against “bunker-buster” bombs. They have short-range missile capabilities, a very steep engineering learning curve, and fast technology-development organization.
Iran is rich in natural resources. They have ten uranium mines and proven reserves of 3000 tons – perhaps as high as 30,000 tons. Thus, Iran has plenty of the raw ore from which to extract and enrich uranium-235. The UN believes Iran has 2000 pounds of enriched uranium, more than enough to make an atom bomb if enriched to weapons-grade.
Iran claims to have developed the technology to build their own centrifuges, which are used to enrich raw uranium ore to power heavy-water reactors (2%), light-water reactors (20%) or to build atomic weapons (85%).
There are 2000 tons of enriched uranium in the world, 95% of it in secure facilities. Efforts are underway to secure the remaining 5%.
Both China and Russia, permanent members of the UN Security Council, have resisted efforts to impose sanctions on Iran.
Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution
The Revolutionary Guard is an elite military group of 125,000 plus the 100,000-member Basij militia, a paramilitary group. Ahmadinejad was in the Basij militia, and his rise to power in June 2009 is believed by most experts to have been a military coup.
The Guard is much more than a group of highly-skilled soldiers. They are a vast multi-billion dollar conglomerate with a controlling interest in the oil and gas, petrochemicals, telecommunications, farming, and road construction industries.
Military-Industrial Complex
The Revolutionary Guard controls 1/3rd of the whole Iranian economy, including the nuclear and missile programs. The Guard also controls all of the main charitable organizations run by leading clerics (charity is bigger in Islam than even Chrisianity).
Military Dictatorship
The latest sanctions against the Revolutionary Guard are the most effective way to reign in Iran’s nuclear-weapons ambitions. The Guard’s economic assets are targeted easily, causing pressure upon the 100,000 members of the Guard and avoiding pain and suffering upon the 65 million Iranians at large. Iran will have a nuclear weapon within two years, according to the Russians and all the think tanks.
Action Items
The Guard controls Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Sanctions targeting only the Guard were easier to sell to Russia and China than sanctions against the entire nation. This will take time – years, maybe decades.
Sanctions against the Guard may drive a wedge between the military and the clerics they control and dominate ruthlessly. The regime regularly sentences to death political dissidents as “enemies of God.”
As we know in Iraq, 100,000 troops is not enough to control a nation of 65 million individuals if the people have the will to run their own affairs as a democratic people.
In general, the Obama administration has already conceded Iran will have nuclear weapons. All the insiders say so. Their goal now is containment, once Iran gets nukes.
